This week’s featured research article has just been published in Futures by University of Adelaide researchers and examines enhancing the policy relevance of exploratory disaster risk reduction scenarios.
This paper proposes an approach to enhance the policy relevance of exploratory scenarios through specific consideration of their framing and the factors considered for temporal narrative development. The approach was applied, for illustrative purposes, to consider natural disaster risk reduction in Greater Adelaide, Australia.
The case-study application considers bushfire, earthquake, flooding and heatwaves and resulted in five scenarios framed on challenges to resilience and challenges to mitigation for policy makers in Adelaide. This allowed for the participatory exploration of risk reduction options with the State Mitigation Advisory Group, a stakeholder group of civil servants, and emergency management professionals.
Five scenarios were developed within these framing axes based on factors considered relevant to either resilience or mitigation, including social cohesion, institutional culture and perceptions and governance structures. The developed scenarios explored concepts, themes and subsequent development trends that were found valuable for long-term policy development and analysis. This resulted in scenario frames of challenges to resilience (i.e. a community driven response to managing and minimising risk), and challenges to mitigation (i.e. where government led approaches of structural measures and restrictive policies are used to reduce risk).